AG2 TROPICAL REPORT SEPTEMBER 4 2013

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 32.4N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 33.6N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 35.3N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 103.7W TO 19.8N 110.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
041130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
104.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 104.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 040415Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE LLCC IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF BROAD DIVERGENCE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
S$

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