150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N 145.8E TO 23.1N 140.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
121130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N
145.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.0N
145.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES, WITH A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 120024Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS REMAIN LOW IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE, BUT WITHIN THE EXTENDED PERIPHERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION,
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC
REMAINS FAIRLY ELONGATED WITHIN THE EAST-WEST AXIS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
LLCC HAS BEEN CREATING A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND HAS BEEN HINDERING THE OUTFLOW WITHIN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS (05 TO 15 KNOTS)
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/120000Z SEP 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 120000)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 92.7W TO 20.6N 96.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N 92.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE THIS MORNING, AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 532
NM SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE, TX. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
FEATURE REMAINS ORGANIZED IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HAS EVIDENCE OF SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIORNMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO 87
DEGREES WILL FURTHER AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 33.6N 67.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 67.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 35.0N 67.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 38.0N 67.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 43.0N 64.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 21.3N 29.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 29.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.3N 29.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.6N 31.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.4N 33.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 26.0N 35.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.5N 39.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.0N 43.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.0N 45.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
S$
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