Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21
Dec 31, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9613.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI/292351Z DEC 12//AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW300000)//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S
59.5E TO 12.9S 55.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 302330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 58.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 59.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 58.7E, APPROXIMATELY 665 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) POSITIONED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE, PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
A 302144Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING
ELSEWHERE. A 301715Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG,
EASTERLYVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM
AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TOBE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THEDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED,
UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 010000Z.//
Tropical Cyclone 05P Warning #07
Dec 31, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0513.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P WARNING NR 007//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P
WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER
OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 17.6S
161.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY
SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT,
GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT
WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT
WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT:
17.6S 161.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 18.5S
161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
--- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.2S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS
- 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS
OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS
OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS
OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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