WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.4N 50.4W TO 30.0N 49.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281745Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.3N 50.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE PRESENCE OF A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
DEFINED. YET SUCH CLOSED CIRCULATION IS BASED ON THE ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT THAT IS NOW STATIONARY CUTTING OFF SHEAR OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BUT DOES INFLUENCE THE HIGH OF THE SUPPORT OF BUILDING OF
THE EASTERN SIDE OF WAVE BUT OVERRIDING OF WARM AIR OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT CAN AND DOES SWING THE MOISTURE MORE SOUTH THEN WEST FROM
EASTERN SIDE OF NEWLY FORMED DEPRESSION UNTIL DONE GUIDANCE IS TO BE
USED WITH CAUTION AND MORE INTO THE CLIMATE OF THE FORMATION OF NEW
DEPRESSION.
OTHER INFORMATION DOWNSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC THAT CAN AFFECT THE POLAR
JET OVER THE 55 DEGREES NORTH CIRCLE AS ALSO SEEN IN STORM WARNINGS
OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THAT HAS INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC DRAG OF ITS
ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDS INTO STATIONARY.
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 113.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 113.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.7N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.7N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.9N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.3N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0N 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
S$
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