01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.2N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.2N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.5N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.2N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 121700). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 125.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
13.3N 128.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1024NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND,
UNCLAIMED BY MEXICO YET HELD BY UNITED STATES. RECENT COMPUTER
ANIMATED COLORED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION. A 131411Z SEMIS IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME ALMOST ENTIRELY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT VERY LITTLE OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
NO LONGER DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM AND INDICATES IT IS MOST LIKELY AN
EASTERLY WAVE. DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL STRUCTURE AND ELONGATION
OF THE LL-CC, THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.06.2010
HURRICANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 115.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042010
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.06.2010 13.0N 115.2W STRONG
12UTC 25.06.2010 13.5N 117.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.06.2010 14.4N 119.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.06.2010 14.9N 120.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.06.2010 14.9N 122.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.06.2010 14.9N 123.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.06.2010 14.8N 124.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.06.2010 14.7N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2010 14.4N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
HURRICANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 99.7W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052010
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.06.2010 12.9N 99.7W MODERATE
12UTC 25.06.2010 13.5N 100.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.06.2010 13.7N 102.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 26.06.2010 13.7N 102.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.06.2010 13.7N 103.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.06.2010 13.8N 103.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.06.2010 14.2N 102.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.06.2010 15.4N 101.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.06.2010 15.9N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 16.2N 81.9W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.06.2010 16.2N 81.9W WEAK
00UTC 26.06.2010 17.5N 85.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.06.2010 19.0N 86.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.06.2010 20.8N 90.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.06.2010 21.1N 91.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.06.2010 22.9N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2010 25.0N 94.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.06.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
USMC. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXERT, UK
TOO 250453
** WTIN20 DEMS 250700 ***
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 25-06-2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.).
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL, AND
NEIGHBORHOOD PERSISTS AND LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST ARABIAN SEA, SOME PARTS OF
NORTHWEST & ADJOINING NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND
ANDAMAN SEA.
THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 25ON OVER THE REGION.
END=
** WTPZ34 KNHC 250840 ***
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
...CELIA STILL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 117.0W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE AFFIRM-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEEN
** WTPZ24 KNHC 250840 ***
TCMEP4
HURRICANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
0900 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.5W
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 117.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEEN DARBY MONTANA
Humidity19%
Wind SpeedWSW 4 G 11 MPH
BarometerNA
Dewpoint39°F (4°C)
VisibilityNA
Heat Index83°F (28°C)
Last Update on 13 Aug 3:14 pm MDT
Current conditions at
WEST FORK (WSFM8)
Lat: 45.815556 Lon: -114.258333 Elev: 4420ft.
More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Darby MT
7 Day Forecast
Missoula, MT
NWS Weather Forecast Office
LATE
AFTERNOON
Scattered Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Scattered
Thunderstorms
High: 86 °F
TONIGHT
Scattered Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Scattered
Thunderstorms
Low: 50 °F
WEDNESDAY
Areas Smoke
Areas
Smoke
High: 91 °F
WEDNESDAY
NIGHT
Areas Smoke
Areas
Smoke
Low: 48 °F
THURSDAY
Sunny
Sunny
High: 94 °F
THURSDAY
NIGHT
Mostly Clear
Mostly
Clear
Low: 50 °F
FRIDAY
Sunny
Sunny
High: 92 °F
FRIDAY
NIGHT
Partly Cloudy
Partly
Cloudy
Low: 50 °F
SATURDAY
Chance Thunderstorms
Chance
Thunderstorms
High: 85 °F
Late Afternoon Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Areas of smoke.
Partly sunny, with a high near 86. West northwest wind around 5 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Areas of
smoke. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Northwest wind around 6
mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Areas of smoke. Sunny, with a high near 91. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday Night Areas of smoke before midnight. Mostly clear, with a
low around 48. Light and variable wind.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming northwest
around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 92.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a
high near 85.
Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy,
with a low around 47.
Sunday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 84.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 87.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 87.
** WTPZ44 KNHC 250841 ***
TCDEP4
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
CELIA IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE THIS MORNING...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CLOSED ALLEYWAY WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 140 KT. THAT WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CELIA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER THAT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION...WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE CYCLONE
MOVING LITTLE AT DAYS 4-5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS.
IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY AS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. CELIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN 24-36 HR...BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR...AND DECAY TO A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 117.0W 140 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 14.1N 118.6W 130 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W 105 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
** WTPZ25 KNHC 250849 ***
TCMEP5
HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
0900 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 100.7W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 100.7W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 100.4W
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 100.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
** WTPZ35 KNHC 250851 ***
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
...DARBY STRENGTHENS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 100.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE SMALL EYE OF HURRICANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.7 WEST. IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DARBY COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE AFFIRM-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND IT COULD STRENGTHEN
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
** WTPZ45 KNHC 250852 ***
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
DARBY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-N MI EYE FOR ABOUT THE PAST FIVE
HOURS BUT HAS DISPLAYED AN OBLONG CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAB AND STAB ARE BOTH T5.0...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANALYSES FROM US-SCRIMS
INDICATE THAT HAS MOVED INTO A FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR
OF HIGHER SETS AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THOSE WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS
DARBY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOVE ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE EXPECT FOR SHIFT. THE SHIPS RI INDEX DOES
INDICATE A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR DARBY TO
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO SHIPS AND LGEM.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS
STALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT
INDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET
OUTLIERS. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RATHER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ESSENTIALLY...THE
STRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
FARTHER TO THE EAST COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
** WTPZ35 KNHC 250906 ***
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
CORRECTED FOR LATITUDE IN DISCUSSION SECTION
...DARBY STRENGTHENS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 100.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE SMALL EYE OF HURRICANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.7 WEST. DARBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DARBY COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DARBY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND IT COULD STRENGTHEN
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
Added Thank you of Planning Personam Celia McAdam, AICP
Executive Director, PCTPA
Called "one of the most important transportation officials in Northern
California" by The Sacramento Bee, Celia McAdam has served as
Executive Director of the Placer County Transportation Planning Agency
(PCTPA) since 1998, and as Executive Director of the South Placer
Regional Transportation Authority since its formation in 2001. McAdam
previously served as Senior Planner for PCTPA in the early 1990s and
also held management positions with the city of San Jose and the Butte
County Association of Governments.
An expert in transportation funding, McAdam has been recognized by her
peers for her creativity in moving projects forward in spite of
bureaucratic and technical obstacles, and has been sought out by the
media for her ability to translate complex transportation issues into
understandable terms. Under her leadership, PCTPA was named
Organization of the Year by the California Transportation Foundation
in 2003 and Agency of the Year by the Sacramento Area Council of
Gov-ernments in 2007.
McAdam's ties to Placer County date back to 1852, when both of her
great-great grandparents were born in Dutch Flat.
www.pctpa.net
$$
S$
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