AG2 TROPICAL REPORT AUGUST 15 2013

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 158.4W TO 13.8N 167.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
151400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
159.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 159.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 500NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC. A 151226Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH
QUADRANT WITH SHALLOW, BROAD BANDING ELSEWHERE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF SHARP
TROUGHING WITH NO INDICATION OF A SURFACE REFLECTION; HOWEVER,
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING IS EVIDENT WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161430Z.//
NNS$

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